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Offseason Review Series: Day 7, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Division: NFC South
2017 Record: 5-11 (4th in the NFC South)
Subreddit: Buccaneers, MikeGlennon

2017 Key Statistics

Category 2016 Ranking 2017 Ranking Δ
DVOA Offense 19th 11th +8
Total Offense 5,542 Yards 5,816 Yards +274
Total Passing Yards 3,926 Yards 4,366 Yards +440
Total Rushing Yards 1,616 Yards 1,450 Yards -166
DVOA Defense 13th 32nd -19
Total Defense Allowed 5,887 Yards 6,049 Yards -174
Total Passing Yards Allowed 4,012 Yards 4,169 Yards -157
Total Rushing Yards Allowed 1,875 Yards 1,880 Yards -5
Total Sacks 38.0 22.0 -16.0
TurnoveTakeaway Differential +2 -1 -3
Penalty Flags 102 104 +2
Player Arrests 1 1 0
Player Fines $1.6M $110K -$1.49M

Introduction: There’s a Storm Coming, Master Wayne

When I wrote for this series one year ago, it was full of bright and bushy tailed optimism. There were many reasons to excited: we were coming off our first winning season since 2010. Jameis Winston was showing promise as a franchise QB. Our defense finished the 2016 strong and were going in a positive direction under Mike Smith. We had finally invested in skill position players to surround Jameis with more talent.
Though brimming with optimism, there were a couple of red flags I recognized, and it turns out, they weren’t only red flags, but Achilles heels:
Jameis’s decision-making and reduction of turnovers
He would wind up turning the ball over 18 times in 13 games (11 interceptions + 7 lost fumbles). Decision-making wound up being detrimental to the team in more ways than one.
the interior offensive line protecting him [Jameis]
Our starting QB’s were sacked 40 times last season. Sweezy and Pamphile (both no longer with the team) provided sub-par protection throughout the season, and while Marpet grew as a Center, the team bounced him back to Guard where he’s a more natural fit.
a secondary that may not be poised to stop the powerhouse QB’s of the NFC South
The team allowed a league-worst 4,169 passing yards. Vernon Hargreaves III didn’t progress as much as the team hoped in year two, and while Grimes continued to play serviceably, our Safety play from Conte continued to be a plague. Injuries exposed our sheer lack of depth, and once again, we proved our inability to answer the age old question: “How do you stop a slant route?”
a huge question mark around Doug Martin
At one point in the season, he was suspended by the team (in addition to serving out the remainder of his PED suspension) for violating team rules. He wound up with 406 yards on the season (2.9 YPC). He’s now an Oakland Raider.
the circus of our competition for the starting Kicker job (aka Dr. Roberto’s Wild Ride).
The Aguayo experiment ended in massive failure. Nick Folk beat him out for the job, only to do his best Aguayo impersonation. We replaced him with Patrick Murray, and now we’re replacing Murray with Catanzaro—our 6th starting Kicker in the last two seasons.
So are the expectations for the upcoming 2018 season? There’s a storm coming, Master Wayne, and I believe we are about to witness an end of Schiano/end of Raheem Morris level meltdown with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a regime change from top to bottom, and whatever promise we had last year is going to go full Hindenburg. Let’s talk about the landscape entering July:
The Jameis Winston Suspension: I’ve already opined with my thoughts on Winston, so I’ll do my best to take my bias out of this and look at it from an objective standpoint. There’s little argument that Jameis would have provided us the best chance to win, flaws and all. Winston’s three game suspension to start the season comes against the Saints, the Super Bowl Champion Eagles (I need a shower every time I type that), and the Pittsburgh Steelers—all of whom were playoff teams last year. While Fitzpatrick played decently during Jameis’s injury absence last year, these teams are simply too good from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. Starting the season 0-3 during Jameis’s suspension is a real possibility. So what happens next? Does the team rally behind his return? Does the negative momentum and bad morale continue into Week 4? Does a pissed off Jameis return with a chip on his shoulder and play the best football of his career? Or does he try too hard to put the team on his shoulders and continue with his propensity to turn the ball over? The suspension is the make or break point on the season. We’ll see how the team responds (or doesn’t).
Mike Smith is Still our Defensive Coordinator: The Buccaneers made a significant investment in free agency and via the draft to upgrade our pitiful defensive line that generated a league-low 22.0 sacks last year. We used our 1st round pick on Vita Vea, traded a 3rd and 4th for Jason Pierre-Paul, and signed Mitch Unrein, Vinny Curry, and Beau Allen. But when you have a Defensive Coordinator who tries to play a game of Checkers with the Chess pieces at his disposal, acquisitions that look good on paper may not translate to success on the field.
Smith has been running a variation of the Cover 3/Cover 4—a scheme that is predicated on the strength of the pass rush up front. Though injuries were aplenty last season, our defense was painfully predictable. Four man rushes were the norm; in fact, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Buccaneers only sent blitz packages on 18% of first downs, 19% of third downs. Quarterbacks looked relaxed enough to sit back, sip on a pina colada, and read the newspaper.
The Bucs don’t have an easy schedule, and with matchups against division rivals Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees, as well as Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz/Big Dick Nick, Eli Manning, and a bevy of other solid quarterbacks, one can’t help but have a foreboding feeling going into this season about Mike Smith’s gameplans.
Mike Smith is the type of Fortnite player who gathers a bunch of materials at the beginning of a match, hides in a Godbush, and then decides to go charge at a fully stacked fort at the end of a game with a grey burst assault rifle.
Linearity on Offense: Good NFL offenses thrive on unpredictability and innovation. And then, there’s the Bucs. If I were to describe our offense last year, I would call it “predictable linearity.” There was almost an “If A, then B, if B, than C” logic to our playcalling. If it was a first down, it would almost always be a handoff up the middle. If Jameis lined up behind center, it was almost always a run play. If he lined up in shotgun, it was always a pass play. When Charles Sims took the field, it was going to be a pass. You know that Geico commercial where the evil villain reveals in painstaking detail his plans, ruining the element of surprise? That’s our offense. It sucks, and even with the addition of Ronald Jones II and Ryan Jensen, I have no confidence things will get better.
All of this said, I predict the Buccaneers will finish 5-11 this year, last in the NFC South. Let’s talk about the offseason (both Free Agency and the Draft), what to expect, and looking at our team top to bottom.

Free Agency and Trade Acquisitions – New Faces in the Red & Pewter

Player Deal Analysis
Vinny Curry (DE) 3 Years, $27M ($10.5M Guaranteed) This offseason, Jason Licht made a conscious attempt to overhaul our defensive line, and Curry was the first piece added to complete the (never-ending) puzzle. At 30 years old, Curry still has a few decent years left in him and should be an immediate starter at LE. It helps that he is a sufficient run defender as well, and should the team decide to move on from Willie Gholston, Curry will be able to step in and fulfill Gholston’s duties.
Ryan Jensen (Center) 4 years, $42M ($22M Guaranteed) This acquisition tied with the Jason “Captain Hook” Pierre-Paul trade as my favorite move of the offseason, though it wasn’t without its downsides. Perhaps the greatest benefit of signing Jensen is that it will allow us to move Ali Marpet back to Guard where he’s a more natural fit and was showing All-Pro level potential before the team inexplicably bounced him inside. The ramifications of this deal, however, is that the Indianapolis Colts were the Bucs’ greatest competition to sign Jensen. By winning the Jensen sweepstakes, it made the Colts selecting Quentin Nelson at #6 overall a foregone conclusion. The Colts wound up with a player I coveted and who will be a generational Guard (I said the same of Chance Warmack. You can trust me). Nevertheless, OL was one of our many weaknesses heading into the offseason, and while our LT and RG situations are still glaring problems, Jensen at least provides an immediate upgrade.
Jason Pierre-Paul Trade! Giants received Bucs 3rd and 4th Round Picks Thank you Jesus. The Bucs had one of the most anemic pass rushes in 2017, generating a measly 22.0 sacks. The JPP trade made sense for both sides. Bucs snagged a 29-year-old DE still in his prime (with a potential out on his deal in 2019), and the Giants free $2.5M in cap while picking up an extra pick for a guy who wasn’t a good scheme fit for their new 3-4. A graduate of University of South Florida (USF), JPP returns to Tampa and will hopefully, maybe, probably, I pray to Glennon become our first 10+ sack pass rusher since Simeon Rice (I literally say this every time we get a new DE so I’ll be right, eventually).
Chandler Catanzaro (K) 3 years, $9.75M ($3.75M Guaranteed) On the plus side, Chandler Catanzaro isn’t Roberto Aguayo or Nick Folk. On the downside, Jason Licht’s revolving door of Kicker strategy has come back to bite us in the ass. After the Folk debacle, the Bucs brought Patrick Murray who went 19/23 on FG’s last season (82.6%) and 21/22 on XP’s (95.5%). We let Murray become a Free Agent, replacing him with Catanzaro, who was 25/30 on FG’s (83.3%) and 100% on XP attempts. It’s a small upgrade over Murray, but was it really a necessary move? Will he be able to replicate his success in Tampa, or will our Kicker curse continues? Find out on this season’s Special Teams & Special Memes Twilight Zone.
Beau Allen (DT) 3 years, $15M ($7.25M Guaranteed) There’s not a lot to dislike about this move. Allen is 26 years old, an adequate starter, and he’s going to do his job better than Chris Baker. Allen and Vita Vea will provide value on 1st and 2nd down and will be a valuable rotational player on the line—all at a reasonable price
Mitch Unrein (DT) 3 years, $10.5M ($4M Guaranteed) Unrein may wind up being a surprise training camp cut, and this was a move I didn’t love, overall. Watching tape of Donovan Smith last year against the Bears, Smith not only neutralized Unrein throughout the game, but outright dominated him. And if Donovan Smith can shut you down, you need a come to Jesus moment. I don’t see a scenario where the Bucs keep McCoy, Vea, Allen, Tui’kolavatu, Ward, and Unrein, and if I were to guess, the last three games I named will be the odd men out.

2018 NFL Draft Review –

I came away from the last year’s draft with a bullish attitude, and I think you’re going to see some breakout players from that class (more on that below). My opinion is more bearish on our 2018 picks, and while we aggressively addressed some glaring needs on DL and DB, none of the picks wowed me like last year. I think this draft class will produce two quality starters in Vita Vea and Carlton Davis, and I’m on the fence about Ronald Jones II. More on that below:
Round/Pick Player Analysis
Round 1, #12 Overall Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau "Vita" Vea (DT – Washington) After Quentin Nelson went off the board at #6 (Damn you, Colts), the Buccaneers found a trade partner with the Buffalo Bills and moved down five spots to #12 where we selected Vita Vea. I felt lukewarm about the pick at the time, wondering why we passed on Derwin James. After watching a few hours of tape on Vea, that feeling remains the same. Vea addresses a glaring area of need. Dating back to when Gerald McCoy was drafted in 2010, the Bucs have desperately searched for and failed to find a run stuffing complement. In effect, McCoy has been the only source of any disruption on the DL. Vea will most likely benefit playing in a rotation on 1st and 2nd downs. It’s a small cause for concern that Vea played 62% of Washington’s defensive snaps last season, given that he was presumably a centerpiece of their unit. Vea comes across on tape as an immovable object which will benefit the Bucs in run defense; however despite developing a reputation as a pass rusher, my takeaway watching Vea’s tape is his first step comes out slower than you’d like. His pad level is a tad high, and he tends to rely on driving with his arms more than his legs, but once he engages a blocker, good luck outmuscling him. I think the kind of value Vea adds won’t necessarily show up on the stat sheet. Look at this play, for instance. If you left him one on one with a blocker in college, he was going to stuff your run like a water buffalo. I think Vea projects to be an adequate starter in the pros who will be best utilized on obvious rushing downs. His pass rush and technique need work, but with proper coaching, he might become the disruptive phenom many believe he can be.
Round 2, #38 Overall Ronald Jones II (RB – USC) Ronald Jones is a blistering speed demon with home run potential. Once he gets into open field, good luck stopping that train. I happen to love his balance as well. Once he gets hit with initial contact, his low pad level and power often made him hard to bring down. The recurring problem I saw with Jones’ tape, however, was in his inability to let his blocks develop, and the lack of patience resulted in him running into the pile before his holes opened up. It doesn’t help that the Buccaneers OL hasn’t exactly been an opportunity creator for our run game, and that makes me worry about Jones’ transition to the NFL. Pass blocking is a huge area of work for Jones, and he’ll have to refine better technique than this play and this play, for instance. RB was a huge area of need for us with the decline of the Caged Muscular Rodent. Jones may never be Chris Johnson-type who he’s sometimes compared to, but projects to a decent pro back.
Round 2, #53 Overall M.J. Stewart (CB – UNC) There’s surprisingly little tape of Stewart out there on YouTube, so my analysis is pretty ill-informed. In four years, M.J. Stewart played all over UNC’s defense, flipping between CB and Safety and coming up as the 8th man in the box. Despite the versatility, Jason Licht has stated Stewart will be used “strictly” as a CB, and we need all the help we can get there. There’s two things that concern me in the limited amount I’ve seen from Stewart: 1. His lack of turnovers. In his final two years of school, he had 0 INT’s, though he did have 12 pass breakups in 2017. 2. Hip fluidity, or lack thereof. When he turns upfield, his break comes off slower than you’d like, and it allowed his receivers to separate Example 1 vs. Stanford.
Round 2, #63 Overall Carlton “It’s Not Unusual to be Loved by Anyone” Davis (CB – Auburn) I dug the pick, and while Davis may never project to more than an adequate starter in the pros, adequate is good enough. Davis is a big-bodied CB who played against top competition while at Auburn. Watching Davis’s tape, I came away with the following observations: He can get a little bit too handsy and I worry about flag potential, particularly early on in his career (Example vs. Georgia). He’s insanely strong and does a good job in press coverage of forcing his receiver outside. He’s a good tackler and does a well shedding blocks on run plays. Watching his game against Clemson, he seemed to get burned on a number of slant routes. So how’d he do against a fellow top NFL prospect in Calvin Ridley vs. Alabama? Pretty damn well. He held Ridley to 3 catches for 38 yards and had him blanketed the whole game. I liked this pick, more than the Stewart selection.
Round 3, #94 Overall Alex Cappa (G – Humboldt State) Cappa played LT while at Division II Humboldt State, but will likely start the season at RG pending some unforeseen disaster. It’s difficult to evaluate tape of small school prospects, because the local TV stations will send out potato quality cameras, and secondly, watching them play against guys well below their level is like watching Mike Tyson box a toddler. So obviously, Cappa was a man among boys, and from the limited potato tape I watched, he’s quick off the snap, uses his hands well, and has that mean streak you want from an OL. I really have no opinion on this pick. It’s a gamble, as any small school prospect is, but it paid off with Ali Marpet and hope it will with Cappa too.
Round 4, #117 Overall Jordan Whitehead (S – Pitt) He’s the cousin of Buccaneer Legend Darrelle Revis, so clearly, he’ll have the same level of success in the pros. It’s a risky pick given some of Whitehead’s off the field concerns that led to a three-game suspension, but investing a 4th rounder was the point in the draft where the risk and reward ratio were even. In man coverage, Whitehead looks like a ballhawk, and I was impressed with his closing speed. Play recognition certainly needs some work. Look at this play, for instance. It’s a play action fake which you see him start to shadow his receiver but then realize just a moment too late the RB is in the secondary. Nevertheless, after his LB’s failed to stop the run, look how insanely fast he is to run sideline to sideline to tackle the RB. Whitehead could also sometimes whiff tackles. Deficiencies aside, it wouldn’t shock me if this pick ends up being a steal.
Round 5, #144 Overall Justin Watson (WR – UPenn) We now have three Ivy League players on our roster entering training camp! I was a big fan of this pick, and while Watson may never see the light of day on the field contending for snaps with Evans, Jackson, and Godwin, he adds solid depth to our WR corps which has become a strength for our rather thin roster. In the limited amount of Watson I saw, I liked his route running and footwork. He won’t have an immediate impact but has the chance to get looks in the event of injury.
Round 6, #202 Overall Jack Cichy (LB – Wisconsin) If Jason Licht has excelled in one area (and it’s probably the only area) of defensive scouting, he’s succeeded in finding talent at LB. Between Kwon Alexander and Kendell Beckwith, Licht has built one of the strongest 4-3 LB corps in the league. Cichy will have an uphill battle to make the final roster and will have to beat out Devante Bond. Based on watching Cichy’s tape against Iowa, his instincts and play recognition looked solid. I just really don’t like the name Cichy. Just look at it. Cichy. Screw his name. I hope he legally changes it to Ochocinco.

Projected Starting Lineup & Analysis: Offense

QB- Jameis Winston (After Suspension): Last season, I was hoping to see a downward trend in turnovers. While his accuracy has crept up year-by-year, his turnovers are still downright stupid at times. Though Winston threw 11 INT’s last season, Football Outsiders speculated that Jameis had an additional 8 passes that should have been picks. These follies are not entirely his fault. Our OL was a complete mess last year, and despite the fact that we surrounded Jameis with more weapons, our offensive playcalling didn’t necessarily cater to Jameis’s strengths, instead forcing him to chuck a number of deep balls and higher risk throws that weren’t in his skillset. The Bucs would benefit from making greater use of two TE sets with Brate and Howard to capitalize on the shorter and medium routes. Bucs fans may not want to acknowledge this, but Jameis is playing for Koetter, Licht, and possibly his own job in the final 13 games of the season. The deeper a hole the Bucs get into this year, the more risky moves we’ll see from Jameis. It’s going to be an interesting ride. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 3,113 yards, 64.1% completion percentage, 20 TD’s, 16 INT’s
WR1 – Mike Evans: Evans has turned out to be a great pick. In each of his four years in the league thus far, he’s eclipsed the 1,000+ yard mark. He earned himself a well-deserved monster extension this offseason that will keep him with the Bucs for an additional five years (he won’t even be 30 by the time the deal ends). Despite the favorable stats last year, 2017 was quite possibly Evans’ weakest season to date. He had a well-documented sideline blowup against the Saints that led to a warranted suspension. And that’s my biggest concern with Evans, going forward. He’s showing a tendency to let the league’s top DB’s get into his head, and the angrier he gets, the sloppier his game is. Nevertheless, he’s the most important piece on the Bucs offense, and it’s not even close. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 84 receptions, 1,182 yards, 6 TD’s
WR2 – Desean Jackson: Desean Jackson played his first year in Tampa better than his 668 yards would indicate. I counted at least 5 or 6 deep balls where he had generated clear and significant separation from his defender, only to be overshot by Jameis. In all likelihood, this is Jackson’s final year in Tampa Bay. The Bucs will be able to cut him after this year with no ramifications to the cap. One player to look out for is Chris Godwin, who finished the 2017 season strongly and could be a legitimate threat to Jackson as our WR2. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 56 receptions, 703 yards, 3 TD’s
RB – Ronald Jones II: See above analysis. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 721 Rushing yards (3.8 YPC), 5 TD’s
TE – Cameron Brate (He Went to Harvard): Like Evans, Cameron Brate secured a monster extension this offseason. It’s been a good success story for him as a former UDFA who’s now among the league’s top paid TE’s. It’s a bit of a travesty that Brate and Howard weren’t on the field more together because of their potential for mismatch nightmares. Brate was on the field for 178 more pass plays than Howard, and while Howard obviously had a rookie adjustment into the pros, Koetter perhaps used him too conservatively. More Brate + More Howard = Recipe for Jameis Success, which is why I think we’ll continue using them separately. It’s a Bucs life. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 56 receptions, 627 yards, 5 TD’s and Probably Wrong Projected Stats for Oterius Jabari Howard: 51 receptions, 587 yards 5 TD’s
LT – Donovan Smith: At this point, I’m firmly convinced that Donovan Smith is one of the league’s worst LT’s and has been a roadblock to Jameis’s success. Last year I wrote of Smith: “Against middling pass rushers, Smith has shown the ability to compete, but match him up against the league’s premier rushers, and he looks like a Kenyatta Walker throwback.” Not much has changed, and there’s nothing worse than watching him in blitz protection. He tends to go into a panic and allow blockers to go untouched to wallop Jameis. His play makes baby Jesus Glennon cry.
LG – Ali Marpet: I’m glad the Bucs came to their senses and put Marpet back at Guard, where he spent two years progressing very well before they inexplicably moved him to Center. Incidentally, Marpet did an AMA on Buccaneers this offseason that was downright awesome. He’s an absolute unit. Keep an eye on him.
C – Ryan Jensen: See above analysis
RG – Alex Cappa: See above analysis
RT – Demar Dotson: Dotson remains far and away our best OL and is one of the league’s underrated RT’s. At 32, he’s beginning to get into that “father time is undefeated” territory, and when the time comes that we part ways, our OL will be reduced to a pile of sad mush.

Projected Starting Lineup & Analysis: Defense

RE – Jason Pierre-Paul: See above analysis Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 11.5 Sacks
LE – Vinny Curry: See above analysis Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 5.0 Sacks*
DRT - Tevita Tuliʻakiʻono Tuipulotu Mosese Vaʻhae Fehoko Faletau "Vita" Vea: See above analysis Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 2.5 Sacks:*
DLT – Gerald McCoy: You know how the Cleveland Browns took a generational LT in Joe Thomas and failed to ever give him the winning team he deserved? That’s Gerald McCoy for us. It has been nothing short of infuriating to see a revolving door of coaches and incompetent defensive linemen around him while he continues to produce with consistency. McCoy just turned 30 this year, and at this point, he’s probably a longshot to make the Hall of Fame down the road, but he’s a lock for our Ring of Honor and will always be a fan favorite. I hope he gets the ring he deserves before his career is done—whether it’s with us or elsewhere. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 6.5 Sacks.
WILL – Lavonte David: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the most criminally underrated Linebacker in the game of football: Lavonte David. From my perspective, Lavonte took a huge step forward last year, his 6th season in the league. His instincts were spot on, and he seemed to always be penetrating the backfield before runs could develop, and he remained fluid in pass defense. Next to McCoy, he’s our most important player on defense, but you sons of bitches continue to ignore him because he’s a 4-3 LB who doesn’t get sacks. It’s your fault. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 3 INTs, 4.5 Sacks
ILB – Kwon Alexander: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you one of the most overrated Linebackers in the game of football: Kwon Alexander. Despite missing four games with a hamstring injury, Kwon Alexander was selected to his first Pro Bowl last year. Kwon is what I would still call a work in progress. Physically, he’s one of the most gifted LB’s in the game: he’s fast, his acceleration to the ball is quicker than most, and he can deliver some of the most punishing hits. He’s got a lot of work to do on the instincts/play recognition front, and it represents his greatest weakness. Kwon’s getting better every year and still has sky-high potential. Since he’s in a contract-year, I’m expecting a huge one for him. Probably Wrong Projected Stats, 4 INT’s, 3.5 Sacks
SAM – Kendell Beckwith: Beckwith has had two rough offseasons in a row. He was drafted in the 3rd round last year and started training camp on the PUP list while he recovered from a torn ACL sustained in college. This offseason, he was involved in a car accident and fractured his ankle. There’s no public timeline on his recovery, though the expectation is he’ll miss most of the offseason. I was impressed by his rookie season and thought he did a good job stepping into a new position (he played ILB in college) and adding value from the get-go. Our LB corps is our greatest strength on defense right now, and Beckwith rounds out the unit nicely. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 2.0 Sacks, 1 INT
RCB – Brent Grimes: Brent Grimes is straight up old at this point. In a week, he’ll be 35 years old, and while he continues to play decently, at a certain point “decent” is going to plummet to geriatric patient status. With our additions at CB in MJ Stewart and Carlton Davis, Grimes may wind up losing some snaps this season. It’s likely his last in Tampa Bay, and possibly the NFL. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 1 INT
LCB – Carlton Davis: See above analysis. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 2 INT’s
Nickel – Vernon Hargreaves III: After two seasons in the NFL, things are not trending well for Hargreaves, a former top 15 pick. Is all hope lost? Not at all. He had a four or five game stretch last season where we played him in the slot, and the improvement was noticeable, but that was a small sample size. Hargreaves has struggled to get the defense takeaways as well, with only one turnover in two years in the league. With the receiving threats in the NFC South, Hargreaves will have to have a huge year three to justify picking up his 5th year option. I’m not going to get my hopes up on this one. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 0 INT
FS – Justin Evans: Of all the young players on the team, none excite me more than Justin Evans. He had a surprisingly good rookie season where he played with confidence, intercepted the Super Bowl loser Tom Brady, delivered big hits, and seemed to be all over the field. Evans must improve on his missed tackles. It was a problem going back to his time at Texas A&M, and it crept into his rookie season. Regardless, I think he’s going to be a really good Safety in this league. He’s our defensive player with the most upside right now, in my opinion. Keep an eye on him this year. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 4 INT’s
SS – Chris Conte: [Sigh]. Chris Conte is one of the streakiest players on our team. Some weeks, he’ll get absolutely torched in the secondary, the next week he’ll make a clutch game-saving takeaway. He’s your definition of average, but average luckily comes at a bargain price. There’s not really a better alternative for us right now, and after the TJ Ward disaster, Conte will have to suffice. Probably Wrong Projected Stats: 2 INT’s

Training Camp Battles to Watch

Desean Jackson vs. Chris Godwin for the “Mike Evans’ Second Fiddle” Title Belt: As aforementioned, Jackson’s struggles on the stats sheet last year were caused more from Jameis’s inaccuracy on the deep ball than an actual decline in Jackson’s play. Godwin finished his rookie season with a spectacular TD catch to beat the Saints, and even prior to that point, he was beginning to develop a rapport with Jameis. I suspect Jackson will beat out Godwin as the starting WR2, but Godwin will transition into the starter by the end of the season. That will likely end in us cutting Jackson following the 2018 season, which would save the Bucs $10M in 2019.
Money in the Bank Match: Harvard Ryan versus not Harvard Ryan: The prevailing assumption is that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the de facto starter during Jameis’s suspension. Not so fast. Despite landing on IR in the 2017 season, the Bucs front office was high enough on “Not Harvard Ryan” (Griffin) that they were willing to extend him one year. There were whispers that Not Harvard Ryan was actually ahead of Fitzpatrick in the battle for backup QB before his injury. I think Harvard Ryan will beat out Not Harvard Ryan this time, but don’t be surprised if the Bucs keep Harvard Ryan on a short leash.
Hell in a Cell Match: Brent Grimes vs. MJ Stewart vs. Vernon Hargreaves III vs. Carlton Davis for the “Julio Jones’ Supper” Title: We got a slobberknocker here, J.R.. What happens when you put Grandpa Grimes against a bunch of youthful DB’s gunning for his job? Well, you get some angry tweets from Miko Grimes (fun fact: Buccaneers actually has a rule dedicated to Miko-related threads. It just reads: “Nope.”) The four guys I named here will all make the roster, but it’s likely to put Javien Elliott, Ryan Smith, and Jude Achoo-Baromoomoo on the roster bubble.

Schedule Predictions

Week Opponent Prediction Analysis
Week 1 @Saints 37-17 Saints (0-1) Saints roster is as complete as it’s been since their Super Bowl win. I expect Brees to come out and have a typical big game at home, while our passing game will struggle against an improving Saints secondary.
Week 2 Eagles 30-20 Eagles (0-2) I don’t see the Eagles getting a terrible Super Bowl hangover. At least, not at this point in the season. Too many good pieces on their team. I predict Nelson Agholor returns home to Tampa and has a monster game.
Week 3 Steelers 31-24 Steelers (0-3) I’m expecting a shootout in this one that winds up a one-score game. Expect a 150+ yard game from Antonio Brown, because lord knows the only thing that’s going to stop him will be a giant meteor. There’s a joke to be had somewhere about Jameis playing Roethlisberger, but I can’t make that joke because Jameis will still be suspended at this point.
Week 4 @Bears 27-17 Bucs (1-3) My own personal vendetta against Bitch Trubitchsky aside, I’m not as bought into the early hype train around him. In Jameis’s first game back from suspension, he’ll return to play a focused game and shred the Bears defense to put our first win on the board.
Week 5 Bye 5-0 Tampa Police (1-3) HONK HONK!
Week 6 @Falcons 41-23 Falcons (1-4) In our first game against the Falcons (who blew a 25-point lead in the Super Bowl), Julio Jones will do his usual dirty work on our secondary and put up another monster game. Fun fact: in 12 games against the Bucs, he’s averaged 7 catches for 118 yards per game. Until I see us stifle him once, I enter these matchups with the assumption bad things will happen.
Week 7 Browns 23-20 (OT) Browns (1-5) Bucs have typically fared poorly against rookie QB’s in the past, and this may be the game that begins “the unraveling” in Tampa Bay. Expect an ugly game with a soul breaking outcome.
Week 8 @Bengals 21-16 Bengals (1-6) I like the investments the Bengals have made in DB in the last couple of years, and Billy Price was a good pickup in Round 1. A lot of people are sleeping on the Bengals defense, but between their disruptive front 7, and an up and comer in William Jackson, I’m expecting this game to be one of those multi turnover head scratching games from Jameis.
Week 9 @Panthers 34-24 Bucs (2-6) Panthers still have a solid defense, but their OL and receivers situation makes me think the Bucs stand a chance to wreak some havoc up front and make this a tough game for Cam. Series is typically split between the two teams.
Week 10 Redskins 21-17 Bucs (3-6) I don’t really know what to think of the Cousins-less Redskins, but on paper this doesn’t look like a great roster. My best man and I have a tradition of attending the Redskins-Bucs game no matter the location and have lovingly referred to this game as “The Pooper Bowl.” It’s going to be one of the season’s uglier games. I think the Bucs will squeak out a win because Mike Evans has had a propensity to go HAM against the Skins.
Week 11 @Giants 41-30 Giants (3-7) The Saquon Barkley hype is real, and OBJ is still a monster; not to mention, the Giants have a nasty defensive line. Expecting a shootout at the Meadowlands. I could see this going either way though. I don’t really trust Pat Shurmur as a head coach because he looks like Jim Zorn and a rabid Koala Bear had a baby.
Week 12 49ers 34-31 49ers (3-8) I get that they’re named after the gold rush, but the name “49ers” is just stupid. It bothers me. Like the name Cichy. It’s gross. Anyhow, I like the identity Bucs God John Lynch is building with the 49ers, and while some of the free agent signings may have been above market value, they’re quickly building well on both the offensive and defensive fronts. I think this will be a shootout with the 49ers taking the lead in the 4th because that’s how we roll.
Week 13 Panthers 20-17 Bucs (4-8) I like the chances of the Bucs to split the series here. I just want to say, as a Gators fan, I hate Cam Newton. I. Hate. Him. So. Much.
Week 14 Saints 21-13 Saints (4-9) Expecting another defensive stifling game from the Saints defense. Bucs will respond with a few picks of our own, but Saints will hold the win in the end.
Week 15 @Ravens 24-21 Ravens (4-10) I expect Lamar Jackson to be starting by this point. Hot take: I like him more than Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield in the long run, but Rosen’s my babe. Anyhow, I predict a monster game from Suggs and a lot of bad decisions from Jameis in this one.
Week 16 @Cowboys 27-21 Cowboys (4-11) They’re going to hand off the ball to Zeke over and over again. I have no idea how the Cowboys are going to fare with their lack of receivers, but it doesn’t bode well for them. The Cowboys now have James Van Der Beek or whatever his name is on their roster. He sounds Dutch.
Week 17 Falcons 28-3 Bucs (5-11) Falcons sit their starters in a meaningless Week 17 game where the Bucs rally for one final win. It won’t be enough. One day later, the Bucs go full red wedding on their coaching staff and management. I die inside.

Non-Buccaneer Predictions for the Season

  1. Last year, I predicted we’d see a breakout year from Goff. This year, my guy is Patrick Mahomes, who I think will be one of the league’s most exciting QB’s for a long time. I’m all aboard the Mahomes canoe. If it tips, than you will too! Do you love Mahomes like I do? All aboard the Mahomes canoe!
  2. MVP will go to Aaron Rodgers. DPOY will go to Joey Bosa (dark horse: Myles Garrett). OPOY will go to Drew Brees. OROY will go to…HOT TAKE! Nick Chubb. DROY will go to Roquan Smith. COTY will go to Frank Reich.
  3. The NFC Championship game will be played between the St. Louis Rams and the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons will win. The AFC Championship game will be played between the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Patriots will win. The Super Bowl will feature an LI rematch, and Brady will win his final ring.
  4. Ben Roethlisberger will retire after this year.
  5. I love Jon Gruden. I love that man very much. But I think his return to the sidelines is one of the worst things that could have happened for the Raiders. I think the Raiders are an 8-win ceiling team this year with him coaching.
  6. The teams I think that have the highest potential to land a top 5 pick, in no particular order: Bucs, Jets, Dolphins, Bills, Redskins. I guess the Browns too.
  7. Coaches most likely to lose a job during or after this season: Koetter, Bowles, Jay Gruden, Hue Jackson, Marvin Lewis (it’s going to fucking happen one day), Vance Joseph, and dark horses: McCarthy, Harbaugh

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TPP Flora Sky Summary: Day 4 part 1

Previously on Flora Sky: Hannah hit a hard wall when trying to defeat Voice Bane and Turzoro City Gym Leader; Wattson! She managed to rebuild her team, get a LOT of grinding in and not only took down one but TWO gyms before the day was out. Having dealt with the members of Team Aqua in Snowround City to free the Underground, we begin our day in gorgeous and tropical Charpos Island. With four badges now under our belt, let’s see what new adventures await…
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To Be Continued...
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odds checker champions league outright video

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